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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.